Central Bank governors and heads of state will meet on Friday and Saturday in Osaka, Japan. The main focus will be easing global trade disputes especially between the US and China as well as the Middle East crisis with Iran. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will meet in the hope of resolving the ongoing trade row while Beijing has already vowed to block inserting the Hong Kong crisis in the agenda. FX volatility is expected to rise following any news from the G20 summit as demand for safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc may increase suddenly.
Quarter GDP results will be revealed on Thursday in the UK with a slight increase of 0.5% or less expected. The data will follow governor Carney’s speech on Wednesday and inflation report hearings. The bank of England has been preparing for different Brexit scenarios but is not expected to use any measures before October giving itself room to react in the event of a disorderly Brexit. Meanwhile, the race to replace Theresa May has narrowed down to foreign secretary Hunt and favourite the former foreign secretary Johnson both of whom are determined to deliver Brexit before the 31 October deadline.
GDP estimates will be published in the US as well but no major changes are expected. The Fed has been under political pressure to cut rates which has so far been resisted by the bank’s board. Chairman Powell is speaking on Tuesday, one day ahead of the data release which will shed more light in the bank’s future policy and current position. The data is coming out only half an hour ahead of the German Consumer Prices so higher-than-usual volatility on EURUSD is to be expected.
New Zealand’s central bank will be holding its monetary policy meeting this week, the first after cutting rates in May. No change is expected but the statement, which is to be released on Wednesday, will show if the previous rate cut was enough or whether further cuts are expected down line. The current rate of 1.5% is already a record low for country.
Also in the Economic Calendar*:
Monday:
23:30 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tuesday:
17:00 USD Fed’s Chair Powell speech
Wednesday:
02:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
09:15 GBP BoE’s Governor Carney speech
12:30 USD Capital Goods Orders (Nondefence)
Thursday:
12:00 EUR German Index of Consumer Prices (Jun)
12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Q1)
23:50 JPY Tokyo CPI (Jun)
Friday:
08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (Q1)
09:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (Jun)
(*Times above are in BST)
